Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?

Market predicts Elon Musk will not post 480-499 tweets during the specified week.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Elon Musk posting 480-499 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026, with a NO probability of 99.35%. This aligns with the Pulse AI's assessment, which also indicates a low likelihood of reaching that tweet volume, suggesting that the market is fairly priced.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors the NO outcome.
• 2 The probability of YES is notably low at 0.65%.
• 3 Pulse AI aligns closely with market sentiment, indicating low likelihood.
• 4 The market appears to be fairly priced with an edge of 2.
• 5 Time to expiry is 243 hours, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 31 12:00 PM ET to April 7, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.