Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?

The market strongly favors that Musk will not post 500-519 tweets during the specified week.

With a market probability of 99.05% for 'NO', there is a strong consensus that Elon Musk will not tweet within the specified range. The Pulse AI probability also supports this view, albeit with a slightly higher chance for 'YES' at 2.95%. The confidence level of 75/100 indicates a moderate certainty in this prediction.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors 'NO' at 99.05%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a low likelihood for 'YES' at 2.95%.
• 3 The edge of 2 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 75/100 reflects moderate certainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is 166 hours, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 10 12:00 PM ET to March 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.