Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?

The market strongly favors Elon Musk posting fewer than 500 tweets during the specified period.

The prediction market indicates a high probability of Elon Musk posting fewer than 500 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026, with a NO probability of 98.25%. The Pulse AI also aligns with this sentiment, suggesting a low likelihood of reaching the 500-519 tweet range. The confidence level is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The probability of YES is significantly lower than the AI's estimate.
• 3 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 3.5.
• 4 Confidence level suggests moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is relatively short at 233 hours.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 13 12:00 PM ET to March 20, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.