Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?

Market strongly favors NO on Musk posting 500-519 tweets in late March 2026.

The prediction market shows a dominant NO probability of 99.45%, indicating a strong belief that Elon Musk will not post between 500 and 519 tweets during the specified period. The Pulse AI also aligns with this sentiment but suggests a slightly higher likelihood for YES at 2.55%. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 75 out of 100.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors NO at 99.45%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for YES at 2.55%.
• 3 Current sentiment indicates skepticism about Musk's tweet frequency.
• 4 Confidence level of 75 suggests moderate certainty in the market's assessment.
• 5 Time to expiry is 246 hours, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 20 12:00 PM ET to March 27, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.