Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?

Market strongly favors NO on Musk posting 500-519 tweets in early April 2026.

The prediction market shows a significant preference for the NO outcome, with a probability of 99.6%. This suggests that participants believe it is highly unlikely for Elon Musk to post between 500 and 519 tweets during the specified timeframe. The Pulse AI also aligns with this sentiment, indicating a low likelihood of the YES outcome.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors the NO outcome.
• 2 The probability of YES is notably low at 0.40%.
• 3 Pulse AI also indicates a strong NO preference at 97.6%.
• 4 The market appears fairly priced with an edge of 2.
• 5 Confidence level is moderate at 75/100, reflecting some uncertainty.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 31 12:00 PM ET to April 7, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.