Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?

Market strongly favors Elon Musk posting fewer than 500 tweets.

The prediction market indicates a high probability that Elon Musk will post fewer than 500 tweets during the specified period, with a consensus of 99.25% for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also aligns with this sentiment, suggesting a low likelihood of Musk reaching the 500-519 tweet range.

• 1 Current market probability heavily favors fewer than 500 tweets.
• 2 Pulse AI probability also indicates low likelihood of reaching 500 tweets.
• 3 Market appears fairly priced with a small edge of 2.
• 4 Confidence level of 75 suggests moderate certainty in the predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is short at 96 hours, adding urgency to the market.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 6 12:00 PM ET to March 13, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.