Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets in March 2026?

The market strongly favors Elon Musk posting fewer than 500 tweets in March 2026.

With a market probability of 99.85% for 'NO,' there is a strong consensus that Elon Musk will not post between 500-519 tweets in March 2026. The Pulse AI also supports this view, albeit with a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 2.15%, indicating some uncertainty. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 75 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors fewer than 500 tweets.
• 2 The probability gap suggests strong confidence in the 'NO' outcome.
• 3 Historical tweeting patterns of Musk may influence future expectations.
• 4 Low liquidity could affect market responsiveness to new information.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with 515 hours until expiry.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of March 2026.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.