Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?

Market strongly favors fewer than 520 tweets from Musk in the specified period.

The prediction market indicates a high probability (99.2%) that Elon Musk will post fewer than 520 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026. This contrasts with the Pulse AI's lower confidence in this outcome, suggesting a divergence in expectations. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors fewer tweets than the specified range.
• 2 The high NO probability suggests strong skepticism about Musk's tweet volume.
• 3 Pulse AI's lower YES probability indicates potential for unexpected outcomes.
• 4 Market confidence is moderate, reflecting some uncertainty in predictions.
• 5 Time pressure is limited with 233 hours until the market closes.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 13 12:00 PM ET to March 20, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.