Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

The market strongly favors Elon Musk posting fewer than 520 tweets during the specified period.

With a market probability of 99.05% for NO, participants believe it is highly unlikely Musk will post between 520-539 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026. The Pulse AI also supports this view, indicating a low probability of 2.95% for YES. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 75 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors fewer than 520 tweets.
• 2 Historical tweeting patterns suggest Musk typically posts less than 520 tweets in similar time frames.
• 3 The market is highly liquid, indicating active participation and confidence in the pricing.
• 4 Time pressure is moderate with 312 hours until expiry, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.
• 5 The edge of 2 suggests the market is balanced and reflects accurate expectations.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 17 12:00 PM ET to March 24, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.