Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?

Market strongly favors Elon Musk posting fewer than 520 tweets during the specified week.

The prediction market indicates a high probability (99.45%) that Elon Musk will post fewer than 520 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026. The Pulse AI also supports this view, albeit with a slightly higher probability for the YES outcome at 2.55%. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 75 out of 100.

• 1 Current market probability heavily favors fewer than 520 tweets.
• 2 Pulse AI probability suggests a minor chance for more tweets than predicted.
• 3 Market confidence is relatively high at 75/100, indicating stable sentiment.
• 4 The edge of 2 suggests the market is fairly priced with no significant mispricing.
• 5 Time to expiry is 246 hours, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment or events.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 20 12:00 PM ET to March 27, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.