Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?

Market strongly favors Elon Musk posting fewer than 520 tweets during the specified period.

The prediction market shows a high probability of 99.95% for NO, indicating a strong consensus that Musk will not post between 520-539 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026. The Pulse AI also aligns closely with this sentiment, suggesting a low likelihood of reaching the specified tweet count. Given the edge of 2, the market appears to be fairly priced with a solid confidence level.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors fewer than 520 tweets.
• 2 High NO probability suggests low expected tweet volume.
• 3 Pulse AI probability indicates a slight chance of more tweets.
• 4 Market confidence is relatively strong at 75/100.
• 5 Time to expiry is short, adding urgency to market dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 3 12:00 PM ET to March 10, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.