Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?

Market strongly favors NO for Musk tweeting 520-539 times in early April 2026.

The prediction market shows a significant bias towards NO, with a probability of 99.65%. This suggests that participants believe it is highly unlikely for Elon Musk to post between 520 and 539 tweets during the specified period. The market appears fairly priced, indicating a balanced assessment of the situation.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors NO with 99.65% probability.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for YES at 2.35%.
• 3 Market confidence is rated at 75/100, indicating moderate certainty.
• 4 The edge of 2 implies the market is fairly priced based on current data.
• 5 Time to expiry is 243 hours, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 31 12:00 PM ET to April 7, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.