Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets in March 2026?

Low probability for Musk posting 520-539 tweets in March 2026.

The prediction market indicates a strong likelihood that Elon Musk will not post between 520 and 539 tweets in March 2026, with a consensus probability of 99.85% for 'NO.' The Pulse AI also supports this view, albeit with a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 2.15%, suggesting a divergence in sentiment but overall confidence in the 'NO' outcome.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors the 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The probability gap indicates a well-priced market with minimal edge.
• 3 Musk's tweeting frequency has historically varied, impacting predictions.
• 4 Liquidity in this market appears stable, with low volatility.
• 5 Time to expiry is significant, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of March 2026.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.