Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?

The market strongly favors that Musk will not post 540-559 tweets during the specified period.

Current market probabilities indicate a high likelihood (99.95%) that Elon Musk will not post between 540-559 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026. The Pulse AI also supports this view, albeit with a slightly higher probability for the YES outcome at 2.05%, suggesting some uncertainty but overall confidence in the NO verdict.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors the NO outcome at 99.95%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability shows a slight chance for YES at 2.05%.
• 3 The edge of 2 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is high at 85/100, reflecting strong consensus.
• 5 Time to expiry is short at 35 hours, adding urgency to the market dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 13 12:00 PM ET to March 20, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.