Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

Market strongly favors fewer than 540 tweets from Musk during the specified period.

The prediction market shows a high probability of 99.1% for the NO outcome, indicating a strong consensus against Musk posting 540-559 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026. The Pulse AI probability further supports this, suggesting a minimal chance of YES at 2.9%. Given the edge of 2, the market appears to be fairly priced with a confidence level of 75 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors the NO outcome.
• 2 Historical tweeting patterns of Musk suggest lower activity levels.
• 3 Market probabilities indicate a strong consensus among participants.
• 4 Time pressure is moderate with 312 hours until expiry.
• 5 Liquidity appears stable, reflecting consistent participant engagement.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 17 12:00 PM ET to March 24, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.