Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?

Market strongly favors NO for Musk posting 540-559 tweets in late March 2026.

The prediction market indicates a high probability of NO at 99.65%, suggesting that participants believe Elon Musk will not post between 540 and 559 tweets during the specified period. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with a slightly higher probability for YES at 2.35%. This alignment suggests a consensus among market participants regarding Musk's tweeting behavior.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors NO with a 99.65% probability.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a lower probability for YES at 2.35%, indicating skepticism about high tweet volume.
• 3 The market appears fairly priced with an edge of 2, suggesting balanced expectations.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 75/100, reflecting some uncertainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is 246 hours, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment before the deadline.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 20 12:00 PM ET to March 27, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.