Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets in April 2026?

Low probability of Musk tweeting 540-559 times in April 2026.

The market shows a strong preference for the NO outcome, with a probability of 99.35%. The AI model also supports this view, indicating a significantly lower likelihood of Musk reaching the specified tweet count. Given the current confidence level and time to expiry, the market appears to be fairly priced.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors the NO outcome.
• 2 AI probability suggests a minimal chance of Musk tweeting within the specified range.
• 3 Market confidence is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 4 The time to expiry is significant at 1214 hours, allowing for potential shifts.
• 5 Market edge of 3.5 suggests prices are aligned with underlying probabilities.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of April 2026.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.