Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets in March 2026?

Low probability of Elon Musk posting 540-559 tweets in March 2026.

The prediction market indicates a strong consensus against the likelihood of Elon Musk posting between 540 and 559 tweets in March 2026, with a market probability of only 0.15% for 'YES'. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with a confidence level of 75 out of 100.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors 'NO' at 99.85%.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 2.15%.
• 3 Current sentiment suggests minimal expectation for high tweet volume.
• 4 Confidence level indicates moderate certainty in the market's pricing.
• 5 Time to expiry is relatively short at 522 hours, adding urgency.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of March 2026.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.