Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

The market strongly favors fewer than 560 tweets from Musk during the specified period.

With a market probability of 99.05% for NO, there is a strong consensus that Elon Musk will not post between 560-579 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026. The Pulse AI probability also aligns closely with this sentiment, indicating a low likelihood of reaching that tweet volume. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 75 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors fewer tweets than the specified range.
• 2 The probability gap between YES and NO indicates strong confidence in the NO outcome.
• 3 Historical tweeting patterns of Musk suggest lower activity during this timeframe.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, supporting the current pricing.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with 318 hours remaining until expiry.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 17 12:00 PM ET to March 24, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.