Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?

The market strongly favors Elon Musk posting fewer than 560 tweets during the specified week.

With a market probability of 99.75% for NO, there is a strong consensus that Elon Musk will not tweet between 560-579 times from March 31 to April 7, 2026. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, indicating a low likelihood of reaching that tweet count. The confidence level suggests that while the market is fairly priced, there is still some uncertainty.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors fewer than 560 tweets.
• 2 The high NO probability suggests low expectations for Musk's tweeting activity.
• 3 Historical tweeting patterns may support the low tweet count forecast.
• 4 The market appears to be efficiently priced with a slight edge.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with 234 hours until market expiry.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 31 12:00 PM ET to April 7, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.