Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?

Low probability of Musk posting 560-579 tweets during the specified period.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that Elon Musk will not post between 560 and 579 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026, with a NO probability of 99.7%. The Pulse AI also supports this view, suggesting a very low likelihood of the YES outcome at 2.3%, indicating a consensus on the expected tweet volume.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors the NO outcome.
• 2 Historical tweeting patterns suggest Musk typically tweets less than 560 times in similar timeframes.
• 3 Market liquidity appears stable, with a clear consensus among participants.
• 4 The time to expiry is short, limiting potential shifts in sentiment.
• 5 Confidence level indicates moderate certainty in the NO prediction.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 6 12:00 PM ET to March 13, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.