Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets in March 2026?

The market strongly favors Elon Musk posting fewer than 560 tweets in March 2026.

With a market probability of 99.85% for NO and only 0.15% for YES, participants overwhelmingly expect Musk to tweet less than the specified range. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, indicating a low likelihood of reaching the tweet count in question.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a lower tweet count.
• 2 The probability gap suggests a strong consensus among participants.
• 3 Historical tweeting patterns may inform expectations for March 2026.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, with minimal fluctuations in betting activity.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate, with over 500 hours until the market expires.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of March 2026.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.