Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

Market strongly favors Elon Musk posting fewer than 580 tweets in the specified period.

The prediction market shows a high probability of 99.25% for NO, indicating skepticism about Musk's tweeting activity during this timeframe. The Pulse AI probability suggests a slightly higher chance of YES at 4.25%, but overall confidence remains low at 60/100, reflecting uncertainty in predicting social media behavior.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 Historical tweeting patterns of Musk suggest lower activity during this period.
• 3 Market confidence is moderate, indicating some uncertainty.
• 4 The edge of 3.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 5 Time to expiry is limited, adding pressure to the predictions.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 17 12:00 PM ET to March 24, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.