Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?

Market strongly favors NO for Musk posting 580+ tweets in the specified week.

The prediction market indicates a very low probability of Elon Musk posting 580 or more tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026, with a consensus of 99.45% for NO. The Pulse AI also aligns closely with this sentiment, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with a confidence level of 75 out of 100.

• 1 Current market probability heavily favors NO at 99.45%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability for YES at 2.55%.
• 3 The edge of 2 indicates the market is likely fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 75/100 reflects moderate certainty in the prediction.
• 5 Time to expiry is 243 hours, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 20 12:00 PM ET to March 27, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.