Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?

Market strongly favors that Elon Musk will post fewer than 580 tweets in the specified period.

The prediction market shows a significant inclination towards the 'NO' outcome, with a probability of 99.55%. This suggests a general consensus that Musk will not reach the tweet threshold during the specified week. The AI model also aligns closely with this sentiment, indicating a low likelihood of him exceeding 580 tweets.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors the 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The probability gap indicates strong confidence in the prediction.
• 3 Historical tweeting patterns suggest Musk typically tweets less than 580 times in a week.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, supporting the current pricing.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate, with 237 hours remaining until expiry.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 27 12:00 PM ET to April 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.