Market predicts Elon Musk will not post 580+ tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026.
The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Elon Musk posting 580 or more tweets during the specified period, with a 99.95% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, although with a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 3.55%, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 3 12:00 PM ET to March 10, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.