Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?

Market predicts Elon Musk will not tweet 580+ times in early April 2026.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus that Elon Musk will not post 580 or more tweets between March 31 and April 7, 2026, with a 99.5% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also aligns closely with this sentiment, indicating a low likelihood of Musk exceeding this tweet count during the specified period.

• 1 Current market probability heavily favors 'NO' at 99.5%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for 'YES' at 2.5%.
• 3 The edge of 2 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 75/100 reflects moderate certainty in the prediction.
• 5 Time to expiry is 234 hours, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 31 12:00 PM ET to April 7, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.