Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?

Market indicates a low likelihood of Musk posting 580+ tweets in the specified period.

The prediction market shows a predominant belief that Elon Musk will not post 580 or more tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026, with a NO probability of 99.55%. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with a slightly higher probability for YES at 3.95%, suggesting some uncertainty in the predictions.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The market probability aligns closely with Pulse AI predictions.
• 3 Historical tweeting patterns of Musk may influence future behavior.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, indicating consistent participant engagement.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with 112 hours remaining until expiry.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 6 12:00 PM ET to March 13, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.