Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets in April 2026?

Market strongly favors NO for Musk tweeting 600-619 times in April 2026.

The prediction market shows a high probability of 99.35% for NO, indicating skepticism about Musk reaching the tweet count of 600-619 in April 2026. The Pulse AI also reflects a low probability of 4.15% for YES, suggesting a consensus against this outcome. The edge of 3.5 indicates that the market is likely priced fairly given the current probabilities.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors NO outcome.
• 2 Historical tweeting patterns of Musk suggest lower frequency.
• 3 Market confidence is moderate at 60/100.
• 4 Time to expiry is significant at 1216 hours, allowing for potential shifts.
• 5 Liquidity appears stable, reflecting consistent betting behavior.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of April 2026.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.