Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets in April 2026?

Market strongly favors fewer than 620 tweets from Musk in April 2026.

The prediction market indicates a high probability of Elon Musk posting fewer than 620 tweets in April 2026, with a consensus of 99.25% for 'NO.' The AI model also supports this view, albeit with a slightly higher probability for 'YES,' suggesting some divergence in sentiment but overall confidence in the market's stance.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors fewer than 620 tweets.
• 2 The market probability suggests strong confidence in the 'NO' outcome.
• 3 AI predictions show a notable gap between market and AI probabilities.
• 4 The edge of 3.5 indicates the market is likely fairly priced.
• 5 Time to expiry is significant, allowing for potential changes in Musk's tweeting behavior.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of April 2026.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.