Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets in April 2026?

Market strongly favors NO on Musk posting 640-659 tweets in April 2026.

The prediction market shows a high probability of NO at 99.15%, indicating strong skepticism about Musk reaching the tweet count of 640-659 in April 2026. The Pulse AI probability also supports this view, albeit at a lower rate of 4.35%, suggesting a significant divergence in sentiment between market participants and AI analysis.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors the NO outcome.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI suggests differing expectations.
• 3 Historical tweeting patterns of Musk may influence future predictions.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting consistent participant engagement.
• 5 Time to expiry is significant, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of April 2026.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.