Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?

Market favors fewer than 65 tweets from Musk between March 14-16, 2026.

The prediction market indicates a 72% probability that Elon Musk will post fewer than 65 tweets during the specified period. With a confidence level of 60/100 and a close alignment between market and AI probabilities, the market appears fairly priced. The upcoming expiry time of 47 hours suggests a need for timely updates on Musk's tweeting behavior.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans heavily towards fewer tweets.
• 2 AI probability slightly favors more tweets but remains close to market consensus.
• 3 The edge of 3.5 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level suggests moderate certainty in the current predictions.
• 5 Time pressure of 47 hours may lead to rapid shifts in sentiment.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 14 12:00 PM ET to March 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.