Will Elon Musk post 680-719 tweets in March 2026?

Market strongly favors that Musk will post fewer than 680 tweets in March 2026.

The prediction market shows a high probability of 99.4% for the NO outcome, indicating a strong consensus against Musk posting 680-719 tweets. The Pulse AI probability also aligns closely with this sentiment, suggesting minimal likelihood of the YES outcome. With a confidence level of 60/100 and a fair pricing edge of 3.5, the market appears stable but heavily weighted towards the NO side.

• 1 Current market probability heavily favors the NO outcome at 99.4%.
• 2 Pulse AI indicates a low likelihood of YES at 4.1%, reinforcing market sentiment.
• 3 The edge of 3.5 suggests the market is fairly priced based on available data.
• 4 Confidence level of 60/100 reflects moderate certainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry of 515 hours allows for potential shifts in sentiment before March 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of March 2026.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.