Will Elon Musk post 700-719 tweets in April 2026?

Market heavily favors NO for Musk tweeting 700-719 times in April 2026.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that Elon Musk will not post between 700 and 719 tweets in April 2026, with a NO probability of 99.4%. The Pulse AI also supports this view, suggesting a low likelihood of reaching that tweet volume, with a probability of only 4.1% for YES. The edge of 3.5 indicates that the market is fairly priced based on current sentiment and analysis.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors NO with 99.4% probability.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a significantly lower chance of YES at 4.1%.
• 3 The edge of 3.5 indicates fair market pricing.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, reflecting some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is 1208 hours, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of April 2026.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.