Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?

Market strongly favors NO for Musk tweeting 80-99 times in late March 2026.

The prediction market indicates a high probability of NO at 99.75%, suggesting that participants believe Elon Musk will tweet fewer than 80 times during the specified period. The AI probability also aligns closely with this sentiment, reinforcing the expectation that Musk's tweeting activity will be significantly lower than the threshold.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a low tweet count from Musk.
• 2 The probability of YES is only 0.25%, indicating minimal expectation for high tweeting activity.
• 3 AI predictions are slightly more optimistic for YES but still reflect a strong NO bias.
• 4 The market appears to be fairly priced with an edge of 2, suggesting balanced views.
• 5 With 245 hours until expiry, there is time for sentiment to shift based on emerging events.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 24 12:00 PM ET to March 31, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.