Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?

Market strongly favors Elon Musk posting fewer than 80 tweets during the specified week.

The prediction market shows a significant lean towards the NO outcome, with a probability of 99.85%. This suggests that participants believe it is highly unlikely Musk will tweet between 80 and 99 times in the given timeframe. The AI model also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with a slightly higher probability for YES at 2.15%.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI suggests a consensus on low tweet volume.
• 3 The time to expiry is relatively short, adding urgency to the predictions.
• 4 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 2.
• 5 Confidence level of 75 indicates moderate certainty in the NO prediction.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 31 12:00 PM ET to April 7, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.