Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in March 2026?

Market strongly favors NO for Musk tweeting 800-839 times in March 2026.

The prediction market shows a significant preference for NO, with a probability of 99.65%. This contrasts with the Pulse AI's lower NO probability of 96.15%, indicating some divergence in expectations. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors NO for the tweet count.
• 2 The probability gap suggests a strong consensus against the likelihood of high tweet volume.
• 3 Historical tweeting patterns of Musk may influence market expectations.
• 4 Liquidity in this market seems adequate, reflecting stable betting activity.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with 514 hours remaining until expiry.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of March 2026.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.