Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in March 2026?

Market strongly favors NO for Musk tweeting 840-879 times in March 2026.

The prediction market shows a high probability of NO at 99.5%, indicating a strong consensus against Musk posting within the specified tweet range. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely with this sentiment, suggesting minimal expectation for such tweet volume. With a confidence level of 60/100 and a time to expiry of 514 hours, the market appears to be fairly priced.

• 1 Current market sentiment is overwhelmingly against the likelihood of Musk tweeting 840-879 times.
• 2 The high NO probability suggests low expectations for Musk's tweeting activity in March 2026.
• 3 Historical tweeting patterns may support the low probability of reaching the specified tweet count.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting consistent participant engagement.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate, with over 21 days until the market's expiry.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of March 2026.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.