Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in March 2026?

Market favors fewer than 880 tweets from Musk in March 2026.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that Elon Musk will not post between 880 and 919 tweets in March 2026, with a high probability of 99.4% for the NO outcome. This aligns with the Pulse AI's assessment, which also suggests a low likelihood of reaching that tweet count, reflecting a consensus on Musk's tweeting behavior.

• 1 Current market probability heavily favors the NO outcome.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a very low chance of Musk tweeting in the specified range.
• 3 Market appears fairly priced with a low edge of 3.5.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is relatively short at 514 hours, adding urgency to the market.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of March 2026.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.