Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?

Market favors fewer than 90-114 tweets from Elon Musk during the specified dates.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that Elon Musk will not post between 90 and 114 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026, with a probability of 74.5% for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also aligns closely, suggesting a slightly higher likelihood for 'YES' but still favoring 'NO', indicating a consensus on lower tweet activity during this period.

• 1 Current market probability shows a strong lean towards 'NO'.
• 2 The edge of 3.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 3 Confidence level of 60/100 indicates moderate certainty in predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 70 hours, adding urgency.
• 5 Historical tweeting patterns of Musk may inform future behavior.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 12 12:00 PM ET to March 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.