Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?

Market favors fewer than 90-114 tweets from Musk during the specified dates.

The prediction market indicates a 71.5% probability that Elon Musk will post fewer than 90-114 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely, suggesting a consensus that Musk's tweeting activity will remain below this threshold. With a confidence level of 60/100 and time to expiry at 43 hours, the market appears to be fairly priced.

• 1 Current market probability favors fewer tweets, indicating skepticism about high activity.
• 2 Pulse AI probability is closely aligned with market sentiment, reinforcing the NO position.
• 3 The edge of 3.5 suggests the market is fairly priced with no significant mispricing detected.
• 4 Confidence level of 60/100 indicates moderate certainty in the current predictions.
• 5 Time pressure of 43 hours may lead to rapid shifts in sentiment as the expiry approaches.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 14 12:00 PM ET to March 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.