Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026?

Market favors fewer than 90 tweets from Musk during the specified period.

The prediction market indicates a 72% probability that Elon Musk will post fewer than 90 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026. With a market probability of 28% for 90-114 tweets and a slightly higher AI probability of 31.5%, the consensus leans towards a lower tweeting frequency, suggesting skepticism about Musk's engagement during this timeframe.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans towards fewer tweets from Musk.
• 2 The market probability is closely aligned with the AI prediction.
• 3 A confidence level of 60/100 indicates moderate certainty in the predictions.
• 4 The time to expiry is short, adding urgency to market dynamics.
• 5 The edge of 3.5 suggests the market is fairly priced based on available data.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 26 12:00 PM ET to March 28, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.