Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in April 2026?

Market predicts Elon Musk will tweet less than 960 times in April 2026.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that Elon Musk will not post between 920 and 959 tweets in April 2026, with a NO probability of 97.9%. The Pulse AI model suggests a slightly higher likelihood for YES at 5.6%, but overall, the market appears to be fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI suggests differing expectations.
• 3 Historical tweeting patterns of Musk may influence future predictions.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, supporting current pricing.
• 5 Time to expiry allows for potential shifts in Musk's tweeting behavior.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of April 2026.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.