Will Emily Blunt win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?

Emily Blunt is highly unlikely to win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards.

The prediction market shows a 0% probability of Emily Blunt winning Best Actress, indicating strong consensus against her chances. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment with a 2% probability for a win, suggesting that any potential for her victory is minimal. With a confidence level of 80/100 and a fair pricing edge, the market appears stable in its assessment.

• 1 Market probability shows a strong consensus against Blunt winning.
• 2 Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market sentiment.
• 3 Confidence level indicates a robust market assessment.
• 4 Time to expiry is short, limiting potential for significant changes.
• 5 Current market conditions reflect low liquidity and stable pricing.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed actress who wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Actress.

If an actress is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actress when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actress whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.