Will Estonia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?

Estonia has a low probability of advancing in the Eurovision Semi-Final.

The prediction market indicates a 23.5% chance of Estonia advancing, while the Pulse AI gives it a slightly higher probability of 25%. With a confidence level of 60/100 and a time to expiry of 1042 hours, the market appears fairly priced with a small edge of 1.5.

• 1 Current market sentiment is heavily against Estonia advancing.
• 2 The market probability aligns closely with the Pulse AI prediction.
• 3 Estonia's historical performance in Eurovision may influence perceptions.
• 4 Liquidity in the market suggests moderate interest but limited volatility.
• 5 Time remaining until the event could allow for shifts in public opinion.

This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.