Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?

Fabiano Caruana has a 30.5% chance to win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament.

The prediction market indicates a 30.5% probability of Fabiano Caruana winning the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament, while the AI model suggests a slightly higher probability of 32%. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100, indicating moderate certainty in the current odds.

• 1 Current market sentiment favors a NO outcome.
• 2 Caruana's historical performance influences current odds.
• 3 Market liquidity appears stable with reasonable volume.
• 4 Time to expiry is significant, allowing for potential shifts.
• 5 Competitor dynamics could impact Caruana's chances.

This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament scheduled for March 29 - April 16, 2026.

If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament per the rules of the FIDE, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.

If the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament is cancelled, or postponed after April 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source will be official information from FIDE; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.