Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026?

Market strongly favors more than 30 tornadoes in February 2026.

The prediction market indicates a high probability (99.65%) that more than 30 tornadoes will occur in the U.S. in February 2026. This aligns with the Pulse AI's assessment, which also shows a strong inclination towards the 'NO' outcome, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with a slight edge.

• 1 Current market probability heavily favors more than 30 tornadoes.
• 2 Pulse AI closely aligns with market sentiment, indicating consensus.
• 3 Confidence level suggests moderate certainty in the prediction.
• 4 Time to expiry is short, indicating urgency in market movements.
• 5 Edge of 0.65 suggests the market is fairly priced with minimal bias.

This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).

Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.

As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on March 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.

If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.

The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.

If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this