Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?

Finland has a 35.3% chance of winning Eurovision 2026, with a majority predicting otherwise.

The current market indicates a 35.3% probability for Finland to win Eurovision 2026, suggesting skepticism among participants. The market appears fairly priced with no edge, reflecting a balanced view on Finland's chances. Confidence in this prediction is relatively high at 80 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans towards Finland not winning.
• 2 The probability reflects a cautious outlook on Finland's chances.
• 3 No significant edge indicates a well-balanced market.
• 4 Time until the event is substantial, allowing for potential shifts.
• 5 Confidence level suggests a strong consensus among market participants.

This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 wins.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.