Will France be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?

France has a 26% chance of winning the Jury Prize at Eurovision 2026.

The current market probability indicates a 26% chance for France to win the Jury Prize, which aligns closely with the AI's estimate of 27.5%. With a confidence level of 60 out of 100, the market appears fairly priced, suggesting limited volatility in expectations. The time to expiry is significant, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment as the event approaches.

• 1 Market probability shows France at 26%, slightly lower than AI's 27.5%.
• 2 The confidence level of 60 indicates moderate certainty in current predictions.
• 3 Time to expiry is substantial at 1236 hours, allowing for potential changes.
• 4 The edge of 1.5 suggests the market is fairly balanced in its pricing.
• 5 External factors like song quality and performance can significantly impact outcomes.

The Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026 is scheduled for May 16, 2026.

This market will resolve to the country that receives the highest number of points from the professional juries in the Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026.

All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.

If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.