Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?

Low probability of France sending warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 2026.

The prediction market indicates a strong likelihood that France will not send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, with a 91% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also supports this view, albeit with a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 12.5%, suggesting some uncertainty in the market.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans heavily towards 'NO'.
• 2 The probability gap indicates a consensus on France's likely inaction.
• 3 Historical context shows limited French naval activity in the region.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting confidence in current pricing.
• 5 Time to expiry suggests ongoing monitoring of geopolitical developments.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.

For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.

Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.

Qualifying confirmations include statements such as off